Minority Majority States

In demography you lately hear the term majority minority state.  This is a state where non-Hispanic Whites make up less than 50% of the population and where combined minority populations make up the majority.

If we only look at US Census Bureau data for race, Whites represent a minority population only in Hawaii and the District of Columbia.  Minorities make up 42-43% of the populations of California, Maryland, Georgia, and Mississippi, but still are not likely to break the 50% mark in the next few years.

If we add in ethnicity along with race, then more states are minority majority states.  You can be of any race and be Hispanic using the US Census definitions of race and ethnicity.  Thus, many Whites Americans are Hispanic.  In New Mexico, 45% of the population report they are Hispanic.

Adding up all the Americans who belong to racial minorities or are Hispanic Whites will produce four states where racial and ethnic minorities combined are the majority:

• Hawaii
• California
• New Mexico
• Texas

plus

• District of Columbia

California's Melting Pot

California is a special state in many ways demographically.  Foremost, more Americans live in California than any other state.  Californians make up 12% of the entire US population.  That means that more than 1 in 8 Americans live in the Golden State.



In terms of race and ethnicity, California also is impressive:

•  1 in 3 Asian Americans are Californians
• Almost 1 in 4 Hispanic Americans live in California
• More Hawaiian Americans and other Pacific Islanders live in California (144K) than in Hawaii (135K)
• 1 in 5 multi-racial Americans live in California
• About 12% of all Native Americans and Alaska Natives also call California home

As for Whites and Blacks, Californians represent smaller percentages of these groups.  The Golden State accounts for only 6% of the total US Black population.  One in 10 White Americans are Californians.  

Updated Marriage Map

As expected, the Michigan marriage ruling has been indefinitely stayed while the appeals process proceeds. Over the weekend 4 Michigan counties did issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples.  As with the couples who married in Utah, the state government is questioning the legal status of these marriages.  For now Michigan joins Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio where Federal judges have ruled in favor of same-sex civil marriage's legalization and where these rulings are now being appealed.

Vacant Homes

The Great Recession starting in 2008 hit the housing industry hard.  New constructions plummeted.  Foreclosures skyrocketed.  Displaced former owners moved into rental property.

This map shows a snapshot from the 2010 Census of the percentage of vacant properties in each state.  So, I'm not sure how much of this pattern results from the Great Recession.  California and Nevada for instance had a large number of foreclosed properties, but the percentages of vacant housing are low there for 2010.

After looking at the Census definitions, I think this pattern is driven largely by vacation homes which are absent during parts of the year.  Note that more than a fifth of housing units are vacant in Vermont and Maine.  I suspect that beach and winter vacation homes in Florida, Myrtle Beach (SC), and Rehoboth Beach (DE) as well as summer homes in New England, Montana, and Alaska produce this pattern.  I once visited Skagway, Alaska.  I recall being told that the town had over 1000 residents in the summer but only about 100 through the winter.

Updated Marriage Map: Michigan

Today US District Judge Bernard Friedman issued his ruling in a Michigan lawsuit seeking the legalization of civil marriage for same-sex couples in that state.  The situation in Michigan at the moment is complicated.  Judge Friedman's decision came out after 5pm when the county clerks who issue marriage licenses had closed.  Judge Friedman, however, did not stay his decision.  Michigan's Attorney General is seeking an emergency stay on the decision.  So, same-sex civil marriage is now technically legal in Michigan, but it is not clear whether any MI couples will manage to get a license and marry before a higher court places a stay on Friedman's decision.  Will a county clerk in Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids or another Michigan city with a large LGBT population open this weekend?  Stay tuned.

I will give things until Wednesday to shake out and then will update the map again.

Where the Big Families Are

This map is somewhat deceptive.  The average American household size in 2010 was 2.5 people per household.  The smallest average household size is among the densely urban District of Columbia (2.11 people per household) and rural, sparsely populated North Dakota (2.3 people per household).  Utah with its higher percentage of children has the largest households at 3.1 people per household.  So, there is not a huge difference between 2.11 and 3.1.

This map though shows the statistical standard deviations between the states (with DC excluded because it is such an outlier).  Still, you are going to find larger households on average in California, Utah, Texas, and Hawaii.  The western states in general plus Georgia and the large metropolitan suburbs in Maryland and New Jersey also attract larger households.

The Typical American, More on Age

If you are 37, then you are the same age as the Typical American.  In fact, the mean age among Americans in 2012 was 37.4 and the median age was 37.4 too.  The median age has been creeping up as the large Baby Boomer cohort ages. In 2007 for instance the median age was 35.

In only one state is the median age under 30:  Utah.  In seven states the median age is now over 40:  Maine, West Virginia, , Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire and Florida.  West Virginia likely has an older population because of a large out-migration of younger people to other states for jobs.  Florida on the other hand reflects the opposite:  a large in-migration of retirees.  Only five years earlier in 2007, there were NO states where the median age was over 40.

An Updated Marriage Law Map

Middling America reader Vin alerted me to a divorce case in Mississippi involving a same-sex couple.  So, I've added a blue asterisk for Mississippi.  Also a Federal judge in Tennessee has ordered the Volunteer State to recognize the out-of-state marriages of three same-sex couples suing for recognition of their marriages.  The judge based her decision on the couples' suit likely being successful.

To recap:  To date Federal judges appointed by both Democratic and Republican presidents have ruled in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage in some aspect in:

• Utah
• Texas
• Oklahoma
• Ohio
• Kentucky
• Virginia
• Tennessee

(It seems I may be missing some decisions, but there have been 100% favorable decisions to date.)

The Typical American, Where Does She Live?

Jennifer, our Typical American, could live in a variety of places depending on how we slice the data.

The Typical American, Net Worth

Demographers usually use median household income rather than mean because several fabulously wealthy people are extreme outliers that obscure the income or net worth of most Americans.  As you can see in this example using 2007 data, Bill Gates, the then richest man in the world, had a net worth almost half a million times larger than the median American household.

The Typical American, Middle Class Ending?

We often hear politicians, marketers, friends, and family speaking out for the Middle Class, but how do we define just who falls into the Middle Class?

Well, according to the US Census Bureau's American Community Survey, about 78% of Americans fit into the Middle Class if we define that as a household earning a median household income between $15,000 and $149,000 per year.  Another 12% of Americans earn less than $15,000 a year.  And if you and your household earn more than $150,000 a year, you belong to the top 10% of household earners and thus the Upper Class.

If you are smack dab in the middle of the Middle Class, your household earns around $53,000, the median household income.

Median income, however, is on a continuum.  So it is subjective how we define Lower, Middle, and Upper Classes of people.  Moreover, sociologists find that what class people identify with has far more complexity than simply how much money one earns.

In fact, recently the Pew Research Center found that the percentage of Americans who identify as Middle Class has dropped to the point that almost as many Americans now identify as Lower Class.  Americans identifying as Upper Class have also declined since the Great Recession hit at the end of the Bush administration.

Thus, no majority of Americans identify with any social class since around 2011.  Instead, the plurality still identifies as Middle Class but just barely.

Same-sex Marriage Lawsuits: The Holdouts

17 states now have same-sex civil marriages.  The Federal government recognizes legal same-sex marriages regardless of in which state a couple live.

In all but 9 of the other states, there are now active lawsuits seeking the state benefits of marriage and the ability to marry in these states.  The 9 holdout states listed in order of 2013 estimated populations are:

• Ohio, 11.6 million*
• Georgia, 9.9 million
• Mississippi, 3 million
• Kansas, 2.9 million*
• Nebraska, 1.9 million*
• Montana, 1 million*
• South Dakota, 0.8 million
• Alaska, 0.7 million*
• North Dakota, 0.7 million

Those states with an asterisk ("*") do not currently have lawsuits directly seeking the legalization of same-sex marriage, but they do have pending lawsuits involving related issues such as listing spouses on death certificates, listing step-parents on birth certificates, recognition under workplace law, foster parenting, etc.  These related lawsuits could impact marriage legalization overall.

So, the real holdouts are the couples in Georgia, Mississippi, and the Dakotas who have yet to file suit.

LATEST: The Marriage Map

Last week a new lawsuit was filed in Indiana seeking to allow same-sex marriages in that state.  The new map reflects this change plus several other refinements:

• I have changed the outlines for out-of-state recognition of same-sex marriages into two categories. The one for Oregon is now green to reflect Oregon's active recognition of same-sex marriages.  Ohio and Kentucky remain red to show the judicial decisions ordering recognition of same-sex marriages are currently under appeal.
• I've changed Alaska from the category of pending lawsuit to legalize same-sex marriage to a marriage-related lawsuit.  The suit there seeks to expand recognition of same-sex couples in workplace law.  I've also added a new blue asterisk for Nebraska where a suit there seeks to overturn a ban on single or same-sex couples serving as foster parents.  

The Typical American, Unions

Most American workers are not unionized.  So the typical American is not a union member.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates 9.2 million current American workers belong to unions.  Unions also include millions of retired workers not counted in the 9.2 million current workers figure.

For those American workers, however, who are unionized and working in the private sector (rather than a union of state/Federal employees), they will earn 23% more than non-unionized workers.  The BLS also reports 94% of unionized workers in the private sector are offered health insurance by their employers compared to 67% of non-unionized private-sector workers.  Union workers also have a higher percentage of their health insurance premiums paid by their employer and receive more benefits such as sick leave, paid vacation, retirement, and life insurance benefits.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a bit more than 1 in 10 US workers are unionized.  This compares to Iceland where 79.3% of worker are unionized.  In fact, in all the Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Iceland), the majority of workers are in unions.  On the other hand, fewer than 10% of workers in South Korea, Turkey, Estonia and France are unionized.

The Typical American, Work

Like nearly two-thirds of the population (64.7%), Jennifer, our Typical American, is part of the labor force. She is currently employed as a teacher, health care worker, social worker, or similar service worker (22.9%).

Jennifer works for a wage at a private company (78.7%) that provides her with a health insurance benefit.

The Latest Marriage Map

Ye ol' marriage map keeps on changing.  Today Wyoming joins the states with a lawsuit seeking to overturn the ban on same-sex marriages.  That leaves 8 states without a current lawsuit directly seeking to legalize same-sex marriage.  Montana, Kansas, and Ohio though have lawsuits related to same-sex marriage underway.

I'm not sure what is up though with Georgia and Indiana.  I would think some lawsuits would be coming out of Atlanta, Indianapolis, Savannah, etc. with their seemingly large LGBT communities.

Many thanks to the good folks whose data updates and news briefs help me to keep this map going:

www.marriageequality.org
www.joemygod.blogspot.com/